Prediction market consensus on Manifold Markets as of June 2026 shows low probabilities for SMIC achieving competitive...

Prediction market consensus on Manifold Markets as of June 2026 shows low probabilities for SMIC achieving competitive parity with TSMC: 4.61% by end of 2024, 15.39% by 2028, and 18.80% by 2033 (Source: / Additionally, SMIC's chance of reaching 3nm before 2026 is only 11% (Source: The market also gives 55.85% probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years (Source: Combined, these signals indicate market skepticism about SMIC's technological and talent competitiveness, pointing to a sustained disadvantage against TSMC.

window 90devidence 5price 0981.HK $71.65

priced-in check

0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.

not priced in

as of 2026-06-127d n/a45d n/a90d +15%yahoo

signal brief

Prediction market consensus on Manifold Markets as of June 2026 shows low probabilities for SMIC achieving competitive parity with TSMC: 4.61% by end of 2024, 15.39% by 2028, and 18.80% by 2033 (Source: https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact / https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0). Additionally, SMIC's chance of reaching 3nm before 2026 is only 11% (Source: https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactu). The market also gives 55.85% probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years (Source: https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semic). Combined, these signals indicate market skepticism about SMIC's technological and talent competitiveness, pointing to a sustained disadvantage against TSMC.

evidence

spillover entities

TSM

Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.