Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates weak expectations for SMIC's competitive position against TSMC.

Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates weak expectations for SMIC's competitive position against TSMC. As of the source dates, the probability that SMIC outcompetes TSMC by 2024 is only 4.61% (source), by 2028 it is 15.39% (source), and by 2033 it is 18.80% (source). Further, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm node before 2026 stands at only 11% (source). A separate market shows a 55.85% probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years (source). These low probabilities and high talent departure risk suggest a downbeat outlook for SMIC's technology advancement and competitive standing relative to TSMC. While prediction markets are not definitive, they aggregate trader knowledge and reflect negative sentiment. If realized, SMIC would lose ground to TSMC, potentially strengthening TSMC's market position. The evidence is single-source and speculative, hence low confidence.