Prediction markets on Manifold indicate low confidence in SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC by 2024 (4.61% YES) and...
Prediction markets on Manifold indicate low confidence in SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC by 2024 (4.61% YES) and 2028 (15.39% YES), and only 18.80% by 2033 source 1, source 2, source 3. Additionally, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm nodes before 2026 is only 11% source 4. Furthermore, there is a 55.85% chance that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years, indicating talent retention risk source 5. These aggregated bets suggest persistent technological and leadership challenges for SMIC relative to TSMC.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction markets on Manifold indicate low confidence in SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC by 2024 (4.61% YES) and 2028 (15.39% YES), and only 18.80% by 2033 source 1, source 2, source 3. Additionally, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm nodes before 2026 is only 11% source 4. Furthermore, there is a 55.85% chance that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years, indicating talent retention risk source 5. These aggregated bets suggest persistent technological and leadership challenges for SMIC relative to TSMC.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.