Multiple Manifold prediction markets indicate consistently low probabilities for SMIC achieving technological parity...

Multiple Manifold prediction markets indicate consistently low probabilities for SMIC achieving technological parity with TSMC. The chance of SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2024 is 4.61% (source), by 2028 is 15.39% (source), and by 2033 is 18.80% (source). Additionally, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm before 2026 is 11.00% (source). On the talent front, the market implies a 55.85% chance that key engineer Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years (source). These crowd-sourced probabilities collectively suggest widening technology gap and human capital risk for SMIC, which is negative for its competitive position against TSMC in advanced nodes.