A prediction market on Manifold (Source 1) shows a 3.49% consensus probability that the US will ban TSMC from selling...
A prediction market on Manifold (Source 1) shows a 3.49% consensus probability that the US will ban TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025. While the probability is low, the event, if realized, would severely restrict TSMC's access to the Chinese market, impacting revenue from major customers like NVDA and AMD. The market is speculative and unverified, but it reflects a perceived risk worth monitoring. What the sources said: - Manifold market question: 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?' with consensus YES=3.49% Source
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
TSM has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
A prediction market on Manifold (Source 1) shows a 3.49% consensus probability that the US will ban TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025. While the probability is low, the event, if realized, would severely restrict TSMC's access to the Chinese market, impacting revenue from major customers like NVDA and AMD. The market is speculative and unverified, but it reflects a perceived risk worth monitoring.
What the sources said:
- Manifold market question: 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?' with consensus YES=3.49% Source
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?': YES=3.49%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=94.04%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=77.38%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.