signal type · other
competitive position change
Every published competitive position change signal with its public hit-rate inline. Belongs to the other family, which means fresh competitive position change calls borrow confidence from sibling types in the family until they earn their own sample.
all-time signals
2
published only
direct hit-rate
—
no scored predictions yet
family hit-rate
40%
15 across other
family
other
see signal-families.ts for mapping
definition
What is a competitive position change signal?
A competitive position change signal is any High-Signal-published call tagged competitive_position_change by the ingest pipeline. The exact extraction rules live in python/ingest and the family rollup in /methodology. Every published instance carries ≥ 2 independent sources per the cite-or-kill rule.
every published competitive position change signal
2026-06-08 · SMIC · down · low
Prediction market consensus on Manifold Markets as of June 2026 shows low probabilities for SMIC achieving competitive...
2026-06-07 · SMIC · down · low
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold indicate extremely low probabilities for SMIC to outcompete TSMC or...