markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=62.81%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be permitted to sell its Blackwell chips (B30A, B300, etc.) directly to China, before May 2026?': YES=4.09%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=42.54%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will NVDA (Nvidia) close April 2026 above $170?': YES=97.66%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=7.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=4.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=8.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=26.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-04-30Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Polymarket consensus on 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=8.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-04-30Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-04-30Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket - 2026-04-30Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-04-30Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-04-30Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-04-30Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket - 2026-04-30Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-04-30Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-04-30Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-04-30Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket - 2026-04-30Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-04-30Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-04-30Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket