markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-28 · run status: success with data
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-27Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-27Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-27Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-27Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-27Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-27Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=10.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=5.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-27Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=9.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-27Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=17.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=11.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-27Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=17.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?': YES=18.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=19.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=28.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=53.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=7.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=43.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=49.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?': YES=5.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?': YES=4.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?': YES=73.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-27GTA VI released before June 2026?
Polymarket consensus on 'GTA VI released before June 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-27Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?': YES=49.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-27Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-27Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Trump out as President before GTA VI?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-27Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-27New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?': YES=55.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-27New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?': YES=53.00%
market:polymarket Manifold consensus on 'Will a new, full-length Stargate series premiere in 2023?': YES=2.14%
market:manifold- 2026-05-27Will we get new Stargate before 2025?
Manifold consensus on 'Will we get new Stargate before 2025?': YES=1.00%
market:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will President Trump speak negatively about Sam Altman by the end of February 2025?': YES=1.00%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?': YES=4.57%
MSFTmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will "Quotes from the Stargate press conference" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?': YES=4.78%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?': YES=19.00%
MSFTmarket:manifold