markets

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=34.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=14.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=28.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=7.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.93%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=72.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=33.02%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.62%

Polymarket top market 'Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?': YES=3.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Canada win on 2026-06-01?': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=2.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=40.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?': YES=4.80%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?': YES=96.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by June 15?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on June 1?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2026?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election': YES=85.00%

Polymarket top market 'Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%