markets

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=71.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Tesla announces formal Intel partnership for AI chip fab by June 30, 2026': YES=96.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Groq chip inspire Nvidia/AMD to produce radically new AI chips before 2026?': YES=2.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?': YES=77.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=45.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=35.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=28.21%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=34.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=14.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=25.66%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the 2026 CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform Nvidia / NVDA over the next 6 months?': YES=50.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=52.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=7.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.93%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=73.44%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'US strike on Cuba by December 31?': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%