markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=45.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=35.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=28.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.57%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=34.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=28.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=2.34%

Polymarket top market 'Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=8.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 1?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 2 - 1 DR Congo?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance': YES=91.00%

Polymarket top market 'Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox': YES=38.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=80.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5': YES=75.00%

Polymarket top market 'Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?': YES=4.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%