markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.53%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=35.56%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova': YES=55.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Erling Haaland: 1+ goals
Polymarket top market 'Erling Haaland: 1+ goals': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Kawhi play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?': YES=82.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Trump out as President by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by July 31?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)': YES=75.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Norway vs. England: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Norway vs. England: O/U 1.5': YES=80.25%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=0.10%
MSFTmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=93.00%
NVDAmarket:polymarket- 2026-07-11Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 England?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?': YES=3.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 11?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Argentina (-1.5)': YES=30.75%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=6.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 11?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 England?': YES=3.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FaZe (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffs': YES=49.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Norway vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Spread: Norway (-4.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Norway (-4.5)': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?': YES=18.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 England?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5
Polymarket top market 'Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5': YES=34.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=25.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 329: Zachary Reese vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Early Prelims)': YES=45.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 11?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 England?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5': YES=69.75%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Spread: Norway (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Norway (-1.5)': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 9z vs Alliance (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffs': YES=60.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Switzerland?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will CJ Abrams hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Spread: England (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: England (-1.5)': YES=26.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5': YES=41.75%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?': YES=0.10%
OPENAImarket:polymarket