markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?': YES=31.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=8.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Charlotte Hornets in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 13?': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Spain?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket top market 'Swiss Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Miomir Kecmanovic': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=39.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?': YES=93.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=92.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 15?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?': YES=31.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Spain?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Spain?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Spain?': YES=2.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=4.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?': YES=6.70%

Polymarket top market 'Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?': YES=3.20%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 13?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?': YES=70.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=34.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: O/U 1.5': YES=77.25%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5': YES=41.25%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler': YES=73.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=5.80%