markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.65%
GOOGLmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=24.11%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Hamburg European Open: Katarzyna Kawa vs Paula Badosa': YES=41.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rafael Devers lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?': YES=85.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will Sabah FK win on 2026-07-21?
Polymarket top market 'Will Sabah FK win on 2026-07-21?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?': YES=22.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Iran full airspace closure by July 21?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 21?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=4.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=99.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup?': YES=4.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?': YES=64.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 20?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 24?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 20?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Iran leadership change by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=5.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=34.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?': YES=99.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?': YES=97.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=3.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jalen Duren play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Riley Greene lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?': YES=2.25%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?': YES=4.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage': YES=79.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket