markets

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?': YES=19.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=68.13%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=66.05%

Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=66.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)': YES=20.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?': YES=5.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?': YES=81.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-08-02?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in August?': YES=99.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=28.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket top market 'Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers': YES=38.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Liquid vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs SK Gaming (+1.5)': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 31?': YES=22.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ferencvarosi Budapest win on 2026-08-02?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners': YES=22.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=71.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?': YES=34.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.00%