markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=66.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Polymarket top market 'Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=83.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by August 15?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?': YES=36.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 5?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market '0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?': YES=5.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=36.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?': YES=86.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 5?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 5?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?': YES=99.80%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?': YES=89.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-08-04?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5)': YES=41.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=26.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=75.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Playoffs': YES=45.00%