markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=86.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?': YES=38.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: CCG Esports vs Contingent Esports - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 330: Eric McConico vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Early Prelims)': YES=24.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 15?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=20.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-15Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-15Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
Polymarket top market 'Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-15Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?': YES=40.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 15?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 15?': YES=97.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-15Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-15Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - CCT South America Challengers #2 Playoffs
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - CCT South America Challengers #2 Playoffs': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?': YES=78.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs paiN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=45.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage': YES=89.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-15Dota 2: OG vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: OG vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 15?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs ALKA (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group': YES=72.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage': YES=42.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage': YES=62.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: Cloud9 vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: CCG Esports vs Contingent Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Last Chance Qualifier': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-15Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15?': YES=70.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-15Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=4.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=99.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Lois Boisson vs Belinda Bencic': YES=23.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner': YES=67.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-15Portland Fire vs. Seattle Storm
Polymarket top market 'Portland Fire vs. Seattle Storm': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=75.00%
market:polymarket