markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=72.90%

Manifold consensus on 'AI chip to 1 GW in 100 days before 2032?': YES=62.40%

Manifold consensus on 'US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026': YES=49.45%

Manifold consensus on 'China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?': YES=52.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI demonstrate a working thermo-chip by 2050?': YES=80.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?': YES=25.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?': YES=93.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Tesla announces formal Intel partnership for AI chip fab by June 30, 2026': YES=96.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Groq chip inspire Nvidia/AMD to produce radically new AI chips before 2026?': YES=2.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?': YES=77.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=45.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=34.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=27.72%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=95.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?': YES=19.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=90.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=23.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=68.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=42.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=40.21%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=6.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=34.32%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will FC Den Bosch win on 2026-08-21?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=63.00%

Polymarket top market 'Arsenal FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 3.5': YES=80.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 22?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Arsenal FC vs. Coventry City FC: Both Teams to Score': YES=29.00%

Polymarket top market 'Arsenal FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 5.5': YES=21.00%