markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?': YES=77.34%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=34.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=27.72%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=95.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?': YES=19.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=90.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=22.87%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=23.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=41.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=69.87%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=6.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=34.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=39.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock at $100 or below by 2028': YES=16.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China buy the H200 from NVIDIA': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=51.55%

Manifold consensus on '📈 Will Nvidia report Q2 FY2027 revenue above $92 billion?': YES=92.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?': YES=9.39%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs FORZE Reload (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage': YES=71.00%

Polymarket top market '2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?': YES=86.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 0.5': YES=91.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage': YES=88.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 24?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?': YES=5.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?': YES=74.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?': YES=10.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?': YES=29.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%