ASML Holding NV
spillover graph 6
market consensus 10prediction-market quotes (latest)
- 80%Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?manifold$12.9K
- 16%Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)manifold$3.1K
- 84%Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?manifold$1.1K
- 69%Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?manifold$641
- 43%Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?manifold$15
- 11%Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?manifold$223
- 56%Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?manifold$250
- 50%Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?manifold$116
- 96%Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?manifold$1.5Kresolved YES
- 6%Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?manifold$596resolved NO
recent signals
As of August 13, 2026, multiple Manifold Markets prediction markets offer a snapshot of sentiment on ASML's EUV...
As of August 13, 2026, multiple Manifold Markets prediction markets offer a snapshot of sentiment on ASML's EUV lithography monopoly and associated China risks.
Manifold Markets prediction-market snapshots dated 2026-08-12 aggregate trader beliefs on ASML's EUV monopoly and...
Manifold Markets prediction-market snapshots dated 2026-08-12 aggregate trader beliefs on ASML's EUV monopoly and geopolitical exposure.
Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-12 show elevated geopolitical risk around ASML's EUV export position.
Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-12 show elevated geopolitical risk around ASML's EUV export position.
Manifold Markets prediction-market consensus as of 2026-08-12 shows ASML's near-term EUV moat intact but a coin-flip...
Manifold Markets prediction-market consensus as of 2026-08-12 shows ASML's near-term EUV moat intact but a coin-flip geopolitical shock priced in.
Manifold prediction-market snapshots dated 2026-08-11 price ASML's EUV monopoly as durable near term while flagging...
Manifold prediction-market snapshots dated 2026-08-11 price ASML's EUV monopoly as durable near term while flagging elevated 2027-2030 geopolitical risk.
As of 2026-08-10, Manifold prediction markets collectively indicate that ASML's EUV monopoly remains intact in the near...
As of 2026-08-10, Manifold prediction markets collectively indicate that ASML's EUV monopoly remains intact in the near term, while long-term regulatory and competitive risks are substantial.
Multiple Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-08 show market participants still assign high probability that ASML...
Multiple Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-08 show market participants still assign high probability that ASML remains the world's only EUV producer through 2026 (79.9%) and 2027 (68.9%), and that ASML revenue grows each year for the next five years (83.8%).
As of 2026-08-08, Manifold prediction markets reveal a mixed but risk-laden outlook for ASML's EUV monopoly.
As of 2026-08-08, Manifold prediction markets reveal a mixed but risk-laden outlook for ASML's EUV monopoly.
Manifold prediction markets surveyed on 2026-08-07 paint a bifurcated picture for ASML: a stable monopoly and growth...
Manifold prediction markets surveyed on 2026-08-07 paint a bifurcated picture for ASML: a stable monopoly and growth base case, but meaningful geopolitical tail-risk.
Manifold Markets prediction markets as of 2026-08-07 collectively signal continued confidence in ASML's EUV dominance...
Manifold Markets prediction markets as of 2026-08-07 collectively signal continued confidence in ASML's EUV dominance and revenue trajectory, while pricing notable geopolitical tail risks.
As of 2026-08-07, a set of Manifold prediction markets on ASML's EUV franchise collectively flag rising perceived...
As of 2026-08-07, a set of Manifold prediction markets on ASML's EUV franchise collectively flag rising perceived regulatory and competitive risk, even as the company's revenue growth outlook stays strong.
On 2026-08-06, a cluster of Manifold prediction markets on ASML showed a nuanced risk profile for the EUV lithography...
On 2026-08-06, a cluster of Manifold prediction markets on ASML showed a nuanced risk profile for the EUV lithography monopolist.
Manifold Markets consensus data published 2026-08-06 shows traders still expect ASML to retain its EUV lithography...
Manifold Markets consensus data published 2026-08-06 shows traders still expect ASML to retain its EUV lithography monopoly in the medium term: 79.92% YES on sole EUV producer through end-2026 and 68.89% through 2027 (source1, source4).
Manifold prediction market snapshots taken 2026-08-05 reveal a split outlook for ASML.
Manifold prediction market snapshots taken 2026-08-05 reveal a split outlook for ASML.
Prediction-market consensus from Manifold Markets as of 2026-08-05 frames ASML's near-term EUV monopoly as durable but...
Prediction-market consensus from Manifold Markets as of 2026-08-05 frames ASML's near-term EUV monopoly as durable but flags rising long-term China and regulatory risks.
Manifold prediction-market snapshots as of Aug 4, 2026 reveal how traders are pricing ASML's franchise risk.
Manifold prediction-market snapshots as of Aug 4, 2026 reveal how traders are pricing ASML's franchise risk.
Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-03 provide a snapshot of forward-looking sentiment on ASML's EUV franchise...
Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-03 provide a snapshot of forward-looking sentiment on ASML's EUV franchise and China-related risks.
Zeiss, the sole supplier of optics for ASML's EUV lithography systems, said it can handle demand for key AI parts,...
Zeiss, the sole supplier of optics for ASML's EUV lithography systems, said it can handle demand for key AI parts, according to Bloomberg.
As of August 3, 2026, Manifold Markets prediction markets paint a mixed but generally confident picture of ASML's...
As of August 3, 2026, Manifold Markets prediction markets paint a mixed but generally confident picture of ASML's competitive moat.
Manifold prediction markets, as of August 2, 2026, price elevated geopolitical tail risks for ASML.
Manifold prediction markets, as of August 2, 2026, price elevated geopolitical tail risks for ASML.