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NVIDIA Corporation

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2026-08-14·NVDA·regulatory change
not priced inlowneutral

Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?

Fallback draft generated from 5 source(s) because normal LLM generation did not return a publishable candidate.

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window 20devidence 5NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-13·NVDA·export restriction
not priced inlowdown

Prediction-market consensus captured on 2026-08-13 sketches a durable China overhang for Nvidia (NVDA).

Prediction-market consensus captured on 2026-08-13 sketches a durable China overhang for Nvidia (NVDA).

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window 20devidence 25NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-12·NVDA·china ai chip competition
not priced inlowdown

Prediction-market consensus on Manifold as of 2026-08-12 points to an intensifying China overhang for Nvidia.

Prediction-market consensus on Manifold as of 2026-08-12 points to an intensifying China overhang for Nvidia.

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window 60devidence 25NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-12·NVDA·china export policy gpu resale
not priced inlowdown

Prediction-market consensus on Manifold dated 2026-08-12 puts only 15.34% odds on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top...

Prediction-market consensus on Manifold dated 2026-08-12 puts only 15.34% odds on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?' and 19.00% odds on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?' (source 1, source 12).

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window 30devidence 25NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-12·NVDA·china ai chip competition
not priced inlowdown

As of 2026-08-12, Manifold prediction markets present a coherent bearish read on Nvidia's (NVDA) competitive position...

As of 2026-08-12, Manifold prediction markets present a coherent bearish read on Nvidia's (NVDA) competitive position and China sales outlook.

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window 60devidence 25NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-12·NVDA·ai infrastructure financing platform
not priced inhighup

Nvidia announced on Aug 11, 2026 that it signed memorandums of understanding with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone,...

Nvidia announced on Aug 11, 2026 that it signed memorandums of understanding with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to establish independent compute financing platforms mobilizing over $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure.

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window 45devidence 50NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-12·NVDA·export restriction
not priced inlowdown

As of 2026-08-12, Manifold prediction markets collectively signal that Nvidia's top GPUs will remain barred from China...

As of 2026-08-12, Manifold prediction markets collectively signal that Nvidia's top GPUs will remain barred from China well into 2027, while China's domestic AI chip sector is expected to make significant competitive progress.

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window 30devidence 25NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-11·NVDA·ai chip competition risk
not priced inlowdown

As of 2026-08-11, several Manifold prediction markets for NVDA cluster around negative structural themes: accelerating...

As of 2026-08-11, several Manifold prediction markets for NVDA cluster around negative structural themes: accelerating Chinese domestic AI-chip competition, persistent U.S. export restrictions, and possible timeline risk for the next-gen 'Vera Rubin' platform.

spilloverAMDTSM
window 30devidence 25NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-11·NVDA·ai infrastructure financing
not priced inhighup

Nvidia announced a landmark initiative to mobilize more than $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure,...

Nvidia announced a landmark initiative to mobilize more than $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure, partnering with Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield Asset Management, Goldman Sachs, and KKR.

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window 60devidence 44NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-11·NVDA·export restriction
not priced inlowdown

Prediction-market consensus on Manifold as of 2026-08-11 signals durable export restrictions and rising competitive...

Prediction-market consensus on Manifold as of 2026-08-11 signals durable export restrictions and rising competitive pressure for Nvidia (NVDA), outweighing bullish stock-price bets.

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window 20devidence 25NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-10·NVDA·grid constraint
not priced inmedup

Two Digitimes reports dated 2026-08-10 indicate Nvidia is in talks to invest up to $3B in Lancium, a Texas power...

Two Digitimes reports dated 2026-08-10 indicate Nvidia is in talks to invest up to $3B in Lancium, a Texas power infrastructure developer building the Stargate data center campus.

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window 45devidence 32NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-10·NVDA·competitive threat sentiment
not priced inlowdown

Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-10 cluster around a bearish competitive outlook for NVDA.

Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-10 cluster around a bearish competitive outlook for NVDA.

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window 90devidence 25NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-09·NVDA·power infrastructure investment
not priced inlowup

Nvidia has agreed to invest $2 billion into Lancium, the power infrastructure developer behind the OpenAI/Oracle...

Nvidia has agreed to invest $2 billion into Lancium, the power infrastructure developer behind the OpenAI/Oracle 'Stargate' AI campus in Texas, with an additional $1 billion available if certain performance thresholds are met, according to The Information via Techmeme.

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window 45devidence 31NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-08·NVDA·data center buildout
not priced inmedup

Nvidia has agreed to invest $2 billion in Lancium, the Blackstone-backed power infrastructure developer behind the...

Nvidia has agreed to invest $2 billion in Lancium, the Blackstone-backed power infrastructure developer behind the Stargate AI campus in Texas, with an additional $1 billion contingent on milestones, according to The Information.

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window 60devidence 101NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-07·NVDA·competitive risk sentiment
not priced inlowdown

Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-07 reveal elevated expectations of competitive pressure on Nvidia.

Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-07 reveal elevated expectations of competitive pressure on Nvidia.

spilloverAMD
window 60devidence 25NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-07·NVDA·partnership
not priced inlowneutral

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?

Fallback draft generated from 5 source(s) because normal LLM generation did not return a publishable candidate.

spilloverCRWVTSMAMDMSFTMETA
window 20devidence 5NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-07·NVDA·data center buildout
not priced inlowup

On 2026-08-07, Reuters reported that Sydney-based AI data center company Firmus raised $2B in equity from Coatue,...

On 2026-08-07, Reuters reported that Sydney-based AI data center company Firmus raised $2B in equity from Coatue, Nvidia, and others at a $10.5B post-money valuation, up from $5.5B in April.

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window 45devidence 33NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-06·NVDA·design win
not priced inhighup

On August 5, 2026, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk announced that SpaceX will build its AI infrastructure exclusively on Nvidia,...

On August 5, 2026, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk announced that SpaceX will build its AI infrastructure exclusively on Nvidia, calling the Vera Rubin architecture "the best AI computer." This is a major design win for Nvidia's next-generation Rubin platform, extending its reach beyond...

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window 60devidence 43NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-06·NVDA·gpu lead time shift
not priced inlowdown

Cross-referencing prediction-market snapshots logged 2026-08-06 for NVDA surfaces one outlier worth flagging against...

Cross-referencing prediction-market snapshots logged 2026-08-06 for NVDA surfaces one outlier worth flagging against broadly bullish sentiment: only 7.04% odds that NVIDIA announced "Vera Rubin" GPUs began shipping by end of Q2 2026 (Manifold).

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window 30devidence 28NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a
2026-08-05·NVDA·devtool trust
not priced inhighup

On Aug 4-5, 2026, NVIDIA made a series of ecosystem announcements strengthening its position in AI infrastructure.

On Aug 4-5, 2026, NVIDIA made a series of ecosystem announcements strengthening its position in AI infrastructure.

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window 45devidence 34NVDA $225.30 / 45d n/a