A Manifold consensus of 77.34% predicts Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026.

A Manifold consensus of 77.34% predicts Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026. Such a move would extend Apple's silicon advantage into dedicated edge-AI processing, likely built on a leading-edge process at TSMC, and could pressure Qualcomm's modem/applications processor position if Apple continues to bring more silicon in-house. The market's confidence is notably high, indicating that rumors, supply-chain signals, or public statements have led forecasters to assign a >3/4 probability to this product launch. An AI accelerator inside the A-series chip would also drive incremental demand for advanced process wafers at TSMC and could spawn a new wave of on-device AI features, aligning with the industry trend toward edge AI. Risk factors: Apple could miss the 2026 timeline or the chip could be limited to Pro models, but the market clearly asserts a release is more likely than not. As a prediction market, this is a probabilistic signal rather than a product announcement, so confidence is low, but the high probability suggests the market expects an imminent reveal (likely within the next 1-2 quarters).

What the sources said:

• Manifold market: "Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?" consensus YES=77.34%.