A Manifold prediction market indicates a 77.34% consensus that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026.

A Manifold prediction market indicates a 77.34% consensus that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026. This would represent a major step in Apple's push to bring on-device AI capabilities, likely through a dedicated Neural Engine or an in-house AI accelerator integrated into the A-series chip. Such a move would deepen Apple's vertical integration, reduce reliance on external chip vendors, and heighten competition with Qualcomm and other mobile AI silicon providers. From a supply-chain perspective, TSMC would likely be the sole manufacturer of the new chip, given its advanced process nodes, reinforcing the Apple-TSMC partnership. The high probability suggests this product launch could be announced in the coming months, potentially influencing the broader AI edge hardware market. However, the signal is based solely on a single prediction market with no corroborating official sources, so confidence is low. The market question is speculative but the probability is meaningful. If realized, Apple would further differentiate its iPhone AI performance, pressuring Android rivals to accelerate their own AI chips. This also has potential spillover to the custom silicon ecosystem, as Apple's design wins could tighten advanced foundry capacity.

What the sources said:

• "Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?" — Manifold market consensus YES=77.34% (https://manifold.markets/irilonto/will-apple-release-an-ai-chip-for-i)