Manifold traders assign 77.34% probability to Apple releasing an in-house AI chip for iPhones in 2026.

Manifold traders assign 77.34% probability to Apple releasing an in-house AI chip for iPhones in 2026. If realized, this would be a major step in Apple's vertical silicon strategy, moving on-device AI inference from third-party NPUs/modems onto Apple-designed silicon. Apple is already a lead TSMC customer for A-series/M-series; an iPhone AI chip would likely add advanced-node capacity demand at TSMC, accelerate edge AI adoption, and pressure Qualcomm's smartphone SoC position and Nvidia's edge AI ambitions. The high market probability suggests the market treats this as a likely roadmap outcome rather than a rumor. However, the only source is a prediction market consensus — no official Apple disclosure or credible supply-chain report is provided — so confidence is low. Watch for Apple's next silicon roadmap announcements and TSMC's capacity expansions for confirmation. This aligns with the AI-edge hardware trend and could signal a further bifurcation between custom edge AI silicon and general-purpose GPU/accelerator approaches.

What the sources said:

• Manifold market 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?' shows 77.34% YES. (https://manifold.markets/irilonto/will-apple-release-an-ai-chip-for-i)