Manifold prediction-market consensus gives 77.34% YES to 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?' This is a...

Manifold prediction-market consensus gives 77.34% YES to 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?' This is a strong but unconfirmed market expectation of an Apple-designed AI accelerator/Neural Engine upgrade for the iPhone product line.

What the sources said:

• Apple AI chip market — "Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?" — consensus YES=77.34%.

If true, this would be a major edge-AI hardware move, increasing Apple's on-device AI capabilities and reducing reliance on cloud inference. It would also deepen Apple's relationship with TSMC for advanced-node production (likely N3/N2 family) and intensify competition with Qualcomm's mobile AI chipsets. The market probability is high but is based on speculation rather than official roadmap disclosure, hence low confidence. Bull case: Apple silicon AI chip drives iPhone upgrade cycle and edge-AI differentiation. Bear case: 'AI chip' may be an incremental Neural Engine update, not a discrete new chip, and timeline could slip. Direction: up for Apple; spillover to TSMC as primary foundry and to Qualcomm as competitor.