A Manifold prediction market tracking whether Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026 currently shows 77.34%...

A Manifold prediction market tracking whether Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026 currently shows 77.34% YES, signaling strong trader conviction that Apple will introduce a dedicated AI accelerator in its next-generation iPhone. The market, created by user irilonto, asks: "Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?" As of the latest feed on 2026-08-08, the consensus has risen to a level that suggests the market views this as more likely than not. If realized, this would mark a significant expansion of Apple's on-device AI capabilities, potentially boosting demand for advanced edge AI hardware and custom silicon. The most likely manufacturing partner is TSMC, which already produces Apple's A-series and M-series chips; a dedicated AI chip would further deepen Apple's reliance on TSMC's leading-edge nodes and advanced packaging (e.g., InFO, CoWoS). It could also increase competition for device AI inference, putting pressure on Qualcomm's NPU designs and potentially reducing the need for separate AI accelerators from suppliers like Broadcom. The probability is derived from a single prediction market and should be treated as speculative, but the high YES percentage and the proximity to Apple's typical September product cycle suggest an announcement could come within the next 45 days. No official confirmation has been made by Apple, and the absence of corroborating news limits confidence. However, given the clear supply-chain implications for TSMC and potential consequences for edge AI competitors, this is an actionable signal worth monitoring.

What the sources said:

• Manifold market 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?' — YES=77.34% (https://manifold.markets/irilonto/will-apple-release-an-ai-chip-for-i)