Manifold gives a 77.34% probability to 'Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026' (source).

Manifold gives a 77.34% probability to 'Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026' (source). This is a high-conviction product forecast for on-device AI silicon, reinforcing Apple's move to run more AI inference on iPhones. If shipped, the chip would likely be fabbed by TSMC on leading-edge N3/A16-class processes, and co-design would involve Apple's silicon team; Broadcom remains a candidate for I/O/SerDes and wireless components. This is a direct supply-chain and product event for edge AI hardware.

Another Manifold market shows 66% odds the first $10T company is Apple, Microsoft, or Nvidia (source), but that is more of a valuation trivia point and not directly relevant to the AI chip. The 77% AI-chip market is the primary signal.

What the sources said:

• Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?': YES=77.34% (source).
• Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=66.05% (source).

Bear case: Apple already ships a Neural Engine, and 'AI chip' might simply be a branding exercise for the upcoming A-series SoC rather than a separate discrete chip. Also, a prediction market is not an official roadmap. We still set direction 'up' because the market clearly expects a product launch, which would affirm Apple's edge-AI investment and benefit TSMC.