A Manifold prediction market currently assigns a 77.34% probability to Apple releasing an AI chip for iPhones in 2026.

A Manifold prediction market currently assigns a 77.34% probability to Apple releasing an AI chip for iPhones in 2026. Such a move would deepen Apple's custom silicon strategy, extending its in-house design from application processors to dedicated AI accelerators. This is aligned with the AI edge hardware trend, where on-device inference is becoming a competitive differentiator. For the semiconductor supply chain, an Apple AI chip would likely be manufactured on TSMC's advanced nodes, further tightening advanced capacity. It could also affect companies like Qualcomm and Avago, though the primary beneficiary would be TSMC. The signal is based on a single prediction market, so confidence is low, but the probability nearly four-in-five suggests the market views an Apple AI chip as more likely than not. If realized, it could accelerate AI capabilities in the installed base of iPhones and pressure competitors to invest more in edge AI silicon.

What the sources said

• "Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?" – Manifold market, 77.34% YES.
• "Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?': YES=77.34%." – Same market.