A Manifold Markets prediction market shows a 77% consensus that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026...

A Manifold Markets prediction market shows a 77% consensus that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026 (source). This is a significant shift in belief regarding Apple's in-house AI silicon strategy, which could reduce reliance on external vendors like Nvidia or Qualcomm and impact the AI infrastructure supply chain. Additional markets indicate only 41% chance Apple remains partnered with OpenAI in 2028 (source), and 24% chance of mentioning OpenAI at WWDC 2026 (source), suggesting a pivot toward custom silicon. While prediction markets are not definitive, the high probability implies investor anticipation of an Apple-designed AI chip. If realized, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) would likely be the manufacturer, benefiting from advanced packaging orders, while Nvidia (NVDA) could face competitive pressure in mobile AI acceleration. The event aligns with the collection as a potential custom AI chip design win, though confidence is low due to the speculative nature of prediction markets and long timeframe.