A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows a 77% probability that Apple will release a dedicated AI chip for iPhones...

A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows a 77% probability that Apple will release a dedicated AI chip for iPhones in 2026 (source 1). This consensus emerged from 2026-06-27, reflecting trader sentiment rather than official disclosure. While purely speculative, the high probability indicates a notable shift in market expectations regarding Apple's investment in on-device AI compute. If Apple proceeds, it would mark a significant step in edge AI hardware, potentially reducing reliance on external AI processors and deepening Apple's vertical integration. Manufacturing would almost certainly be handled by TSMC, given Apple's long-standing fabrication partnership. The move could also pressure competitors like Qualcomm and MediaTek to accelerate their own AI roadmaps. However, this signal is low confidence because it rests on a single, non-authoritative prediction market without supporting evidence from Apple or its supply chain. The projected window of 90 days is based on the distant 2026 target date, suggesting any actionable development (e.g., leaked roadmap or supply chain orders) may emerge over a longer horizon.