Prediction market consensus indicates strong belief in ASML's continued dominance in EUV lithography.
Prediction market consensus indicates strong belief in ASML's continued dominance in EUV lithography.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction market consensus indicates strong belief in ASML's continued dominance in EUV lithography. As of July 26, 2026, Manifold Markets shows 79.92% probability ASML remains the sole EUV producer through end of 2026 (source), 70.76% through 2027 (source), and 96.17% through end of 2024 (source). Revenue growth every year for 5 years has 83.77% probability (source). Meanwhile, China having an ASML EUV machine is at 15.65% (source) and domestic invention by 2030 at 56.45% (source). These odds suggest market confidence in ASML's competitive moat and limited near-term disruption from Chinese competition or export controls, supporting a positive outlook.
What the sources said:
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.65%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=70.76%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.