A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 50% probability that the US will force ASML to halt exports to...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 50% probability that the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (Source 1).
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 50% probability that the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (Source 1). This is a notable geopolitical risk for ASML, which relies on China for a significant portion of its revenue. Other markets show high confidence in ASML maintaining its EUV monopoly through 2026 (79.92%) and revenue growth (83.77%) (Source 3, Source 4), but the export risk could disrupt that outlook. Chinese domestic EUV development by 2030 is seen as 56.45% likely (Source 7), adding long-term competitive pressure. The 50% probability for export restrictions is a material downside signal for ASML's near-term sales, especially if policies tighten.
What the sources said:
- Source 1: "Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%"
- Source 3: "Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%"
- Source 4: "Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%"
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=16.70%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=69.43%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.