A set of prediction market probabilities on Manifold Markets, all dated July 12, 2026, reveals growing expectations...
A set of prediction market probabilities on Manifold Markets, all dated July 12, 2026, reveals growing expectations that China may develop a domestic EUV lithography machine by 2030, posing a long-term threat to ASML's monopoly.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
A set of prediction market probabilities on Manifold Markets, all dated July 12, 2026, reveals growing expectations that China may develop a domestic EUV lithography machine by 2030, posing a long-term threat to ASML's monopoly. Specifically, the market assigns a 56.45% probability that China will invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV machine by January 1, 2030 (source 7). This contrasts with high confidence that ASML remains the sole EUV producer through 2026 (79.92%, source 2) and 2027 (69.43%, source 5). Additionally, the market sees a 50% chance the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (source 8) and a 43.06% chance the US will cut ASML off from Cymer before 2030 (source 4). While the near-term monopoly is secure (96.17% for end of 2024, source 9), the material probability of a Chinese domestic EUV alternative represents a structural risk to ASML's long-term competitive position. If realized, it would enable Chinese fabs like SMIC to acquire advanced lithography outside of export controls, undermining ASML's pricing power and market share. The prediction market data, while not an event, signals that investors are beginning to price in this risk, which could weigh on ASML's valuation multiple over time.
What the sources said:
- Source 7: "Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%"
- Source 2: "Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%"
- Source 8: "Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%"
- Source 4: "Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%"
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=16.70%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=69.43%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.