Multiple Manifold prediction market questions as of July 2026 indicate sustained confidence in ASML's EUV lithography...
Multiple Manifold prediction market questions as of July 2026 indicate sustained confidence in ASML's EUV lithography monopoly and limited China access.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has already moved up +35% over the recent 30-90 day window.
signal brief
Multiple Manifold prediction market questions as of July 2026 indicate sustained confidence in ASML's EUV lithography monopoly and limited China access. The market assigns 79.92% probability that ASML remains the only producer of EUV machines through end of 2026 (source: https://manifold.markets/Jarom/will-asml-still-be-the-worlds-only) and 69.43% through end of 2027 (source: https://manifold.markets/Jarom/by-2027-will-asml-still-be-the-worl). Meanwhile, the probability that China has an ASML EUV machine is only 16.70% (source: https://manifold.markets/JamesSanders/does-china-have-an-asml-euv-machine), and evidence of ASML selling EUV machines to China in 2023 stands at just 6.28% (source: https://manifold.markets/WerargraegRedmane/will-there-be-evidence-of-asml-sell). The market also sees a 56.45% chance China invents a domestic EUV version by 2030 (source: https://manifold.markets/JamesTerry/will-china-invent-a-domestic-versio), suggesting potential long-term competition but no near-term disruption. These aggregated probabilities strengthen the view that ASML's competitive moat remains intact, with no immediate threat to its dominant position or export controls. However, the reliance on prediction market data rather than official announcements or events warrants low confidence.
What the sources said:
- Source 2: 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?' → YES=79.92%
- Source 5: 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?' → YES=69.43%
- Source 1: 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine?' → YES=16.70%
- Source 10: 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?' → YES=6.28%
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=16.70%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=69.43%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.