Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets as of mid-2026 indicate strong consensus that ASML retains its...
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets as of mid-2026 indicate strong consensus that ASML retains its monopoly in EUV lithography and that China has not successfully acquired an ASML EUV machine.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets as of mid-2026 indicate strong consensus that ASML retains its monopoly in EUV lithography and that China has not successfully acquired an ASML EUV machine. The question 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine?' shows only 15.65% probability (source 1). Meanwhile, 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?' stands at 79.92% (source 2), and 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?' at 96.17% (source 9). Revenue growth expectations are high: 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?' at 83.77% (source 3). However, geopolitical risks are priced in: the probability that the US forces ASML to halt China exports before 2029 is 50% (source 8), and that China invents a domestic EUV by 2030 is 56.45% (source 7). The low probability of China owning an EUV machine reinforces ASML's dominant position, boding well for its near-term pricing power and order book.
What the sources said:
- Source 1: 'YES=15.65%' for 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine?'
- Source 2: 'YES=79.92%' for 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?'
- Source 3: 'YES=83.77%' for 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?'
- Source 9: 'YES=96.17%' for 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?'
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.65%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=69.43%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.