Multiple Manifold prediction markets (as of June 12, 2026) indicate strong belief in ASML's continued dominance in EUV...

Multiple Manifold prediction markets (as of June 12, 2026) indicate strong belief in ASML's continued dominance in EUV lithography. Consensus probabilities: 81.77% that ASML remains the only EUV producer through end-2026 (source 1), 69.43% through end-2027 (source 3), and 96.17% that ASML was a monopoly in EUV by end-2024 (source 6). Revenue growth is also highly anticipated, with 83.77% probability that revenue increases every year for the next 5 years (source 2). Meanwhile, probabilities of disruptive events are low: only 6.28% that ASML sold EUV machines to China in 2023 (source 7), and 11.23% that CEO Peter Wennink faces serious criminal charges before 2030 (source 4). Chinese domestic EUV invention by 2030 stands at 56.45% (source 5), but this is still a modest threat within the prediction timeframe. These signals collectively reaffirm ASML's strategic position and long-term growth trajectory, implying sustained demand for its advanced lithography systems from foundries and memory makers like TSM, SAMSUNG, INTC, SK_HYNIX, and MU. However, the moderate probability from China's domestic effort highlights a long-term risk for ASML and potential opportunity for SMIC.