Multiple Manifold prediction market questions on ASML's EUV lithography monopoly and China's access show strong...
Multiple Manifold prediction market questions on ASML's EUV lithography monopoly and China's access show strong consensus that ASML remains the sole EUV producer through 2026 (79.92%) and that China has not acquired an EUV machine (only 16.70% chance as of June 2026).
confidence score
Usable evidence: enough corroboration to publish, with 1 independent source class.
ASML has already moved up +35% over the recent 30-90 day window.
signal brief
Multiple Manifold prediction market questions on ASML's EUV lithography monopoly and China's access show strong consensus that ASML remains the sole EUV producer through 2026 (79.92%) and that China has not acquired an EUV machine (only 16.70% chance as of June 2026). Revenue growth expectations are high (83.77% for annual increases over 5 years), while the risk of US forcing export halt to China by 2029 is roughly 50/50. These probabilities suggest the market sees ASML's competitive position as stable in the near term, with limited China threat to its monopoly.
What the sources said:
- Source 2 (https://manifold.markets/Jarom/will-asml-still-be-the-worlds-only): 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026? YES=79.92%'
- Source 1 (https://manifold.markets/JamesSanders/does-china-have-an-asml-euv-machine): 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026): YES=16.70%'
- Source 3 (https://manifold.markets/MattBrooks/will-asmls-revenue-increase-every-y): 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years? YES=83.77%'
- Source 8 (https://manifold.markets/0xseraphim/will-the-us-force-asml-to-halt-expo): 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029? YES=50.00%'
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=16.70%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=69.43%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.