On June 25, 2026, a Manifold market showed 96.54% probability that Tesla will announce a formal Intel partnership for...

On June 25, 2026, a Manifold market showed 96.54% probability that Tesla will announce a formal Intel partnership for AI chip fab by June 30, 2026 (source). This near-certain prediction suggests an imminent announcement before the deadline, which would be a significant win for Intel's foundry business and AI chip manufacturing ambitions. If realized, Intel would gain a marquee customer in Tesla, bolstering its position against TSMC. However, as a prediction market rather than a confirmed event, confidence is low. The market also shows 27% probability for Intel manufacturing NVIDIA chips and 48.7% for a TSMC-Intel joint venture, indicating speculative sentiment around Intel's foundry turnaround. The deadline is in 5 days, making this a near-term catalyst to watch.