Prediction markets show non-trivial probabilities that Microsoft will use nuclear power for data centers by 2030.

Prediction markets show non-trivial probabilities that Microsoft will use nuclear power for data centers by 2030. The market at manifold.markets shows a 36.36% consensus that Microsoft powers a data center with small modular reactors (SMRs) by 2030. A second market at manifold.markets prices a 27.48% chance of Microsoft operating its own fission reactor before 2030.

These bets reflect industry concerns about AI data center power demand and Microsoft's active pursuit of alternative energy sources. While not a formal commitment, the odds point to nuclear as a credible path to meet AI capacity goals. If realized, Microsoft would secure reliable, low-carbon power, reducing exposure to grid constraints and fossil-fuel competition.

The neutral direction reflects that probabilities remain well below certainty; the bear case is that Microsoft has made no binding nuclear commitments yet. This is an early, weak signal but aligned with AI-infrastructure power constraints, so it is published with low confidence.

What the sources said:

• "Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?" – Manifold shows YES=36.36%.
• "Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?" – Manifold shows YES=27.48%.