According to a Financial Times report (June 24, 2026), prices for Nvidia's AI chips on China's black market have more...
According to a Financial Times report (June 24, 2026), prices for Nvidia's AI chips on China's black market have more than doubled due to the US export crackdown.
NVDA has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
According to a Financial Times report (June 24, 2026), prices for Nvidia's AI chips on China's black market have more than doubled due to the US export crackdown. The flagship DGX B300 server has risen to $1.1 million FT Source. This price surge indicates that demand for Nvidia's high-end GPUs far exceeds supply in the restricted market, and that the export controls are creating severe scarcity. While black market sales do not directly contribute to Nvidia's revenue, the price premium underscores the company's unparalleled pricing power and the difficulty of substituting its chips. Competitors like AMD and domestic Chinese chipmakers may benefit from some demand diversion, but Nvidia's technological lead keeps its products highly coveted. The market may interpret this as a bullish signal for Nvidia's official pricing trajectory and future earnings, especially if the company can capture more of the value through legal channels or relaxed restrictions. The FT report is based on multiple sources, lending credibility to the claim.
evidence
- https://github.com/NVIDIA/cutlass/releases/tag/v4.2.2github
- https://github.com/NVIDIA/cutlass/releases/tag/v4.3.6github
- https://github.com/NVIDIA/cutlass/releases/tag/v4.4.3github
- https://github.com/NVIDIA/Megatron-LM/releases/tag/core_v0.18.0github
- https://www.ft.com/content/57fcd3ce-464f-4dc2-8ea2-5712d4972c69?accessToken=zwAAAZ-QRWuPktO38lyignxA-dOrGlcGfY7JDc9X_NPORk9NwtOOolcS1JcsaQE.MEYCIQD9A3_aiQI3TVtoK2Shb0EgtTRJjhqcqjz6AFNaQIJNSwIhAM1E8lqxlcAh3KrFN_mnk1pMnSXAHotG353LQfKo7KNF&segmentId=7d4bcc2e-e664-92ba-62e3-5590579f1902web
- https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001045810.jsonedgar
- https://www.ft.com/content/57fcd3ce-464f-4dc2-8ea2-5712d4972c69web
- https://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wire/quandela-validates-low-latency-photonic-qpu-integration-with-nvidia-accelerated-computing/web
- https://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wire/high-performance-software-foundation-welcomes-wi4mpi-as-a-new-project/web
- https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/argentum-ai-secures-41bn-ai-cloud-contract-with-unnamed-customer/web
- https://manifold.markets/ManiPart/nvidia-stock-300-or-higher-in-2026web
- https://manifold.markets/ShaneBo/will-nvidia-announce-that-vera-rubiweb
- https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/will-nvidia-outperform-the-sp-500-i-dU686UUClgweb
- https://manifold.markets/BabaGhanoush/china-arranges-for-permanent-iran-pweb
- https://manifold.markets/Hevel/will-nvidia-close-the-day-in-green-ZSug89q5uZweb
- https://manifold.markets/WayneNelmsE0t9/nvidia-h100-compute-prices-above-35-SI0tPcLpZpweb
- https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-nvidia-fy2028-feb-2027-jan-202web
- https://manifold.markets/JTX/will-nvidia-nvda-stock-drop-more-thweb
- https://manifold.markets/_M_/will-champion1024-get-a-girlfriendweb
- https://manifold.markets/JamesSanders/nvidia-allowed-to-sell-b30a-to-chinweb
- https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-nvidia-be-the-most-valuable-puweb
- https://manifold.markets/NoaNabeshima/will-nvidia-resume-selling-its-topweb
- https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/nvidia-shares-to-hit-new-high-in-20-n9zn8C02ldweb
- https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/3-chinas-ai-chip-sector-make-signifweb
- https://manifold.markets/cash/will-jensen-huang-cease-to-be-ceo-o-EAztPCE5CCweb
- https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-nvidias-stock-price-cweb
- https://manifold.markets/ManiPart/will-nvidia-have-the-highest-market-U0csqsuzPhweb
- https://manifold.markets/winged_one/will-nvidia-release-an-rtx-5080-tiweb
- https://manifold.markets/ChristopherBerzins/will-any-chinadomestic-ai-chip-reacweb
- https://manifold.markets/SimranRahman/will-a-serious-competitor-to-nvidiaweb
- https://manifold.markets/Ernie/a-plane-carrying-nvidia-ai-chips-foweb
- https://manifold.markets/rg26/will-tsmc-exceed-nvidia-in-market-cweb
- https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-nvidia-announce-an-intention-tweb
- https://manifold.markets/NoaNabeshima/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-the-raweb
- https://manifold.markets/winged_one/will-nvidia-launch-an-rtx-5090-ti-tweb
- https://manifold.markets/JankoPrester/will-china-develop-domestic-gpu-witweb
- https://manifold.markets/Wired/will-nvidia-still-retain-over-50-maweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.