OpenAI faces dual headwinds: the company is delaying the release of GPT-5.6 after a request from the Trump...

OpenAI faces dual headwinds: the company is delaying the release of GPT-5.6 after a request from the Trump administration (The Verge via HN), and is leaning toward waiting until next year for an IPO (NYT via HN). A Bank for International Settlements report warns that the AI spending boom could end in a global bust, specifically citing OpenAI's IPO delay as a concern (Semafor). Meanwhile, GPT-5.6 has been released in restricted tiers (Sol/Terra/Luna) to trusted partners only (AINews), suggesting a cautious rollout. Although internal Codex token usage has surged dramatically across teams (AINews), these external delays may signal reduced near-term compute demand and financing uncertainty, which could trickle down to infrastructure suppliers. The evidence is mixed: prediction markets still give 99% probability for a new GPT-5-level model by July 1, 2026 (Manifold), conflicting with the delay. Hence low confidence.