Three Manifold markets on China's SMIC versus Taiwan's TSMC show persistently low odds that SMIC can manufacture...
Three Manifold markets on China's SMIC versus Taiwan's TSMC show persistently low odds that SMIC can manufacture semiconductors that outcompete TSMC: 4.61% for 2024, 11.64% for 2028, and 15.37% for 2033.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
0981.HK has already moved down -17% over the recent 30-90 day window.
signal brief
Three Manifold markets on China's SMIC versus Taiwan's TSMC show persistently low odds that SMIC can manufacture semiconductors that outcompete TSMC: 4.61% for 2024, 11.64% for 2028, and 15.37% for 2033. The consensus implies the foundry technology/ecosystem gap is unlikely to close on any competitive horizon. Direction is down for SMIC as a competitive threat; for TSMC it is a positive (moat persistence) and for NVIDIA/AMD it means leading-edge AI supply remains concentrated at TSMC. This is a low-confidence signal because it is based entirely on prediction-market prices, not official process roadmaps or government subsidy changes. Still, the monotonic low probabilities across multiple horizons indicate market participants assign SMIC little chance of overtaking TSMC despite China's industrial policy.
What the sources said:
- "Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?" — YES=15.37% (https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3)
- "...by the end of 2028?" — YES=11.64% (https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0)
- "...by the end of 2024?" — YES=4.61% (https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact)
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=15.37%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=11.64%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.