Multiple Manifold prediction markets assign low probabilities to SMIC outcompeting TSMC by various deadlines: 4.61% by...
Multiple Manifold prediction markets assign low probabilities to SMIC outcompeting TSMC by various deadlines: 4.61% by end of 2024, 15.39% by 2028, 18.80% by 2033, and only 11% to achieve 3nm before 2026. This indicates market consensus that SMIC will not catch up to TSMC's manufacturing leadership. What the sources said - Manifold market on SMIC outcompeting TSMC by end of 2024: YES=4.61% ( - Manifold market on SMIC outcompeting TSMC by end of 2033: YES=18.80% ( - Manifold market on SMIC achieving 3nm before 2026: YES=11.00% (
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple Manifold prediction markets assign low probabilities to SMIC outcompeting TSMC by various deadlines: 4.61% by end of 2024, 15.39% by 2028, 18.80% by 2033, and only 11% to achieve 3nm before 2026. This indicates market consensus that SMIC will not catch up to TSMC's manufacturing leadership.
What the sources said
- Manifold market on SMIC outcompeting TSMC by end of 2024: YES=4.61% (https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact)
- Manifold market on SMIC outcompeting TSMC by end of 2033: YES=18.80% (https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3)
- Manifold market on SMIC achieving 3nm before 2026: YES=11.00% (https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactu)
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?': YES=11.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.