Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates negative sentiment around SMIC's competitive position and key...

Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates negative sentiment around SMIC's competitive position and key personnel. As of June 10, 2026, the market assigns only an 11% probability that SMIC achieves 3nm chips before 2026 source. Furthermore, probabilities that SMIC outcompetes TSMC by 2024, 2028, and 2033 are 4.61%, 15.39%, and 18.80% respectively source1, source2, source3. Most notably, the market places a 55.85% chance that Liang Mong-Song, a critical executive at SMIC, will leave the company within 5 years source. These signals collectively suggest potential talent drain and continued technological lag for SMIC, which could benefit TSMC as the primary foundry leader. However, the evidence is based solely on prediction market sentiment and lacks official confirmation, hence low confidence.