Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold source assess the probability that China's SMIC will outcompete TSMC...

Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold source assess the probability that China's SMIC will outcompete TSMC in semiconductor manufacturing by various deadlines. As of May 29, 2026, the consensus for doing so by 2033 is only 18.8%, by 2028 is 15.39%, and by 2024 was 4.61%. These low probabilities indicate market skepticism about SMIC's ability to catch up with TSMC's technology and capacity. The signal suggests continued dominance by TSMC and limited near-term competitive threat from SMIC, negatively impacting SMIC's perceived trajectory. While prediction markets can be noisy, the consistent low probabilities across multiple time horizons provide a coherent bearish view. This is a low-confidence signal due to reliance on a single platform and the subjective nature of the questions.