Three Manifold markets with different target dates all show low probability that China's SMIC will manufacture...
Three Manifold markets with different target dates all show low probability that China's SMIC will manufacture semiconductors that outcompete Taiwan's TSMC.
confidence score
Usable evidence: enough corroboration to publish, with 1 independent source class.
0981.HK has already moved down -17% over the recent 30-90 day window.
signal brief
Three Manifold markets with different target dates all show low probability that China's SMIC will manufacture semiconductors that outcompete Taiwan's TSMC. The 2024 target trades at 4.61% YES (source), 2028 at 11.64% YES (source), and 2033 at 15.37% YES (source). Even by 2033, traders see only a 15% chance of SMIC surpassing TSMC. This signal reflects persistent market skepticism about SMIC's ability to close the process technology gap despite Chinese state support and export control workarounds. For AI-infrastructure supply chain monitoring, this implies TSMC's foundry dominance remains intact for high-performance AI chips, and SMIC will likely stay a secondary player. Direction for SMIC is down (competitive position), while TSMC is the implied beneficiary.
What the sources said
- "Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?" — 15.37% YES (Manifold).
- "Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?" — 11.64% YES (Manifold).
- "Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?" — 4.61% YES (Manifold).
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=15.37%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=11.64%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.