Multiple prediction market consensus probabilities on Manifold Markets indicate deep skepticism about SMIC's...

Multiple prediction market consensus probabilities on Manifold Markets indicate deep skepticism about SMIC's competitive position versus TSMC. As of June 2026, the probability that SMIC outcompetes TSMC by 2024 is only 4.61% (source: Manifold). By 2028, the probability is 15.39% (source: Manifold), and by 2033 it rises only to 18.80% (source: Manifold). Separately, SMIC achieving 3nm before 2026 is given only an 11% chance (source: Manifold). Additionally, there is a 55.85% probability that key engineer Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years (source: Manifold), which would further impair SMIC's advanced process development. While prediction markets are speculative, the consistent low probabilities across multiple time horizons suggest the market sees SMIC as unlikely to close the gap with TSMC, reinforcing TSMC's continued dominance in leading-edge manufacturing. This could influence sourcing decisions for NVDA, AMD, and AAPL, which rely on TSMC for advanced chips.