Multiple Manifold prediction markets indicate low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in advanced nodes by 2033...
Multiple Manifold prediction markets indicate low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in advanced nodes by 2033 (18.8%) or achieve 3nm before 2026 (11%). A separate market shows a 55.85% chance that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years. These signals, while speculative, suggest market skepticism about SMIC's technology roadmap and talent retention, which could widen the gap with TSMC and impact China's semiconductor ambitions. Source: Manifold Markets, Source: Manifold Markets, Source: Manifold Markets
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple Manifold prediction markets indicate low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in advanced nodes by 2033 (18.8%) or achieve 3nm before 2026 (11%). A separate market shows a 55.85% chance that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years. These signals, while speculative, suggest market skepticism about SMIC's technology roadmap and talent retention, which could widen the gap with TSMC and impact China's semiconductor ambitions. Source: Manifold Markets, Source: Manifold Markets, Source: Manifold Markets
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.