Multiple Manifold prediction markets indicate low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in advanced nodes by 2033...
Multiple Manifold prediction markets indicate low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in advanced nodes by 2033 (18.8%) or achieve 3nm before 2026 (11%). A separate market shows a 55.85% chance that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years. These signals, while speculative, suggest market skepticism about SMIC's technology roadmap and talent retention, which could widen the gap with TSMC and impact China's semiconductor ambitions. Source: Manifold Markets, Source: Manifold Markets, Source: Manifold Markets
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
0981.HK has already moved down -17% over the recent 30-90 day window.
signal brief
Multiple Manifold prediction markets indicate low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in advanced nodes by 2033 (18.8%) or achieve 3nm before 2026 (11%). A separate market shows a 55.85% chance that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years. These signals, while speculative, suggest market skepticism about SMIC's technology roadmap and talent retention, which could widen the gap with TSMC and impact China's semiconductor ambitions. Source: Manifold Markets, Source: Manifold Markets, Source: Manifold Markets
source data used
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactu
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semic
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
score history
| window | return | outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 60d | — | pending |