Multiple prediction market consensus on Manifold Markets indicate strong pessimism about SMIC's ability to compete with...

Multiple prediction market consensus on Manifold Markets indicate strong pessimism about SMIC's ability to compete with TSMC. As of June 5, 2026, the probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by 2033 stands at only 18.8% (source), by 2028 at 15.39% (source), and by 2024 at a mere 4.61% (source). Additionally, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm before 2026 is only 11% (source). More concerning, the market assigns a 55.85% probability that Liang Mong-Song, SMIC's key engineer, will leave the company within 5 years (source). These signals collectively point to a deteriorating competitive position for SMIC, with potential talent loss further hampering its ability to close the gap with TSMC. While these are speculative, they reflect a consistent negative outlook from informed market participants.