Prediction market data indicates low probability (18.8%) of SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2033 (source: with even lower...
Prediction market data indicates low probability (18.8%) of SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2033 (source: with even lower odds for 2024 (4.61%) and 2028 (15.39%). Additionally, SMIC's chance of achieving 3nm before 2026 is only 11% (source: Most notably, the probability that key engineer Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years is 55.85% (source: These consensus estimates suggest weak competitive positioning and potential talent retention issues, negatively impacting SMIC's long-term technology roadmap.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction market data indicates low probability (18.8%) of SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2033 (source: https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3), with even lower odds for 2024 (4.61%) and 2028 (15.39%). Additionally, SMIC's chance of achieving 3nm before 2026 is only 11% (source: https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactu). Most notably, the probability that key engineer Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years is 55.85% (source: https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semic). These consensus estimates suggest weak competitive positioning and potential talent retention issues, negatively impacting SMIC's long-term technology roadmap.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.