Prediction market data indicates low probability (18.8%) of SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2033 (source: with even lower...

Prediction market data indicates low probability (18.8%) of SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2033 (source: with even lower odds for 2024 (4.61%) and 2028 (15.39%). Additionally, SMIC's chance of achieving 3nm before 2026 is only 11% (source: Most notably, the probability that key engineer Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years is 55.85% (source: These consensus estimates suggest weak competitive positioning and potential talent retention issues, negatively impacting SMIC's long-term technology roadmap.

window 60devidence 5confidence score 91price 0981.HK $66.20

confidence score

Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.

low confidence1 independent source classesmarketpasses publish gate

priced-in check

0981.HK has already moved down -17% over the recent 30-90 day window.

partly priced

as of 2026-08-107d n/a45d n/a90d -14%yahoo

signal brief

Prediction market data indicates low probability (18.8%) of SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2033 (source: https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3), with even lower odds for 2024 (4.61%) and 2028 (15.39%). Additionally, SMIC's chance of achieving 3nm before 2026 is only 11% (source: https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactu). Most notably, the probability that key engineer Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years is 55.85% (source: https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semic). These consensus estimates suggest weak competitive positioning and potential talent retention issues, negatively impacting SMIC's long-term technology roadmap.

source data used

spillover entities

TSM

Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.